Saturday, May 21, 2011

May 21: Tornado Warning (Developing Tornado, Destructive Hail 3+ inches)- Radio Junction, Texas


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY...

AT 1057 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL 3 INCHES OR
LARGER.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES 
NORTH OF LAMPASAS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  THIS IS A DANGEROUS 
STORM!  SEEK SHELTER NOW!

THE TORNADO WILL BE...
  JUST NORTH OF RADIO JUNCTION AT 1110 PM CDT

May 21: Tornado Warning (Doppler Radar- Tracked Tornado)- Ottawa, Kansas



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1052 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POMONA...OR 11
MILES WEST OF OTTAWA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BALDWIN CITY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POMONA...
  CENTROPOLIS...
  OTTAWA...
  BALDWIN CITY...
  RANTOUL...
  WELLSVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 199.

May 21: Tornado Warning- Near Baldwin City, Kansas


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1050 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BALDWIN CITY...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF OTTAWA...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...PING PONG
  BALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. AT 1047 PM CDT
  SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR BALDWIN CITY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EDGERTON...GARDNER...SPRING HILL AND CLARE.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Strong Rotation)- Ottawa, Kansas



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 1006 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH 
STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM 
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
POMONA...OR 14 MILES WEST OF OTTAWA...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POMONA...GLOBE...CENTROPOLIS...
OTTAWA...BALDWIN CITY...
RANTOUL AND
WELLSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 198.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Confirmed Tornado)- Near Pomona, Kansas



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 952 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO. THIS STRONG 
ROTATION WAS LOCATED 8
MILES WEST OF POMONA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF OSAGE 
CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POMONA...
  GLOBE...
  CENTROPOLIS...
  OTTAWA...
  RANTOUL...
  BALDWIN CITY...
  WELLSVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 
MILE MARKERS 174 AND 198.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Strong Rotation Capable of Tornado)- Winchester, Kansas


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER 
RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG 
ROTATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR OSKALOOSA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINCHESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY 
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE EXPECTED
TORNADO TRACK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Radar Indicated Tornado)- Oskaloosa, Kansas



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 929 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR PERRY LAKE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF OSKALOOSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OSKALOOSA...
  MCLOUTH...
  WINCHESTER...
  PERRY LAKE...
  OZAWKIE...

May 21: Extreme Tornado Warning (Extremely Dangerous Tornado)- Topeka Metropolitan Statistical Area, Kansas


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR OSAGE
COUNTY...

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO TRACK AN 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 16 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF LYNDON...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OSAGE CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LYON COUNTY EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE IN THE TOWN OF
READING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARCLAY...OSAGE CITY AND LYNDON.

May 21: Tornado Warning (History of Tornadoes)- Ada, Texas



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
PONTOTOC AND SOUTHERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 913 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A 
HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANCIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FRANCIS 
AND SASAKWA.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Confirmed Tornado)- Emporia, Kansas


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
LYON COUNTY...

AT 856 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF EMPORIA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADMIRE AND READING.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS 
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 153.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Tornado Confirmed)- Near Minneapolis (Tornado in Medina, MN)


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENNEPIN
COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 636 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MEDINA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CORCORAN...MAPLE GROVE...OSSEO...DAYTON...ROGERS AND CHAMPLIN.

May 21: Tornado Warning- Rising City, NE



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF RISING CITY...OR 21
MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
PRODUCED A FUNNEL CLOUD EAST NORTHEAST 
OF ULYSSES AROUND 635 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RISING CITY...DAVID CITY...BELLWOOD...GARRISON AND OCTAVIA.

May 21: Tornado Warning-Highland, KS


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIGHLAND...AND 
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  IN
  ADDITION TO A TORNADO...PING PONG BALL SIZE 
HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
  THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOREST CITY...OREGON...IOWA POINT AND FANNING.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68 AND 73.

May 21: Tornado Warning (Funnel Cloud)- Topeka, Kansas


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SHAWNEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS 
REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD.   THIS SEVERE STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR AUBURN...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TOPEKA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PAULINE...
  TOPEKA...
  BERRYTON...
  RICHLAND...
  TECUMSEH...
  GRANTVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE 
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 165 AND 193.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN 
MILE MARKERS 348 AND 355.

May 21: Tornado Warning- Harlan, Kansas


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH 
CENTRAL OSBORNE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GAYLORD...OR 28 
MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PHILLIPSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HARLAN.

Mesoscale Discussion #840


AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 212225Z - 212330Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HRS OVER NRN MO AND POSSIBLY SRN IA. 
A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER NRN MO. FURTHERMORE...
WW 317 MAY NEED TO
   BE EXTENDED EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN IA.
   
   22Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS 
SHOW THE AIRMASS
   ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...
WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES NOW AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL AID CLUSTERS 
OF STORMS OVER
   NERN KS TO PERSIST AS THEY MOVE E-NEWD ACROSS THE MO
   RIVER...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING 
SVR WEATHER THREAT OVER THE AREA.
   FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR POSSIBLE
   SUPERCELLS...POSING A THREAT
 FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER 
NRN MO...WHILE WW 317 CAN BE
   EXTENDED EWD INTO SRN IA IF NECESSARY.

May 21: Tornado Warning Expiration- NE Coryell County, TX



...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN CORYELL COUNTY EXPIRES AT 530 PM
CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE 
TORNADO
WARNING WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A 
TORNADO.
THE TORNADO WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZED HAIL...AND 
GUSTY WINDS
WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
900 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

May 21: Local Area Emergency- Rural roads of Big Horn County, Montana


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
BIG HORN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
744 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF BIG HORN
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

COUNTY OFFICIALS ADVISE TRAVELERS TO REMAIN OFF RURAL ROADS ACROSS
BIG HORN COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...CULVERTS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE FLOODING AND
COMPROMISING THE RURAL ROAD SYSTEM. RURAL ROADS UNDER WATER MAY
VERY WELL BE WASHED OUT WITH OTHER ROADS EXPERIENCING SOFT
SHOULDERS. ROADS THAT ARE FLOODED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF PRYOR CREEK ROAD...LODGE GRASS CREEK ROAD...SARPY
CREEK ROAD AND HIGHWAY 313. ONCE AGAIN...TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN OFF RURAL ROADS IN BIG HORN COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

May 21: Local Area Emergency (Voluntary Evacuation)- Aviemore Court on Blue Creek Road, Billings, MR


MTC111-221900-

LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
MONTANA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY BILLINGS MONTANA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
106 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY DISASTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE BILLINGS FIRE DEPARTMENT IS CALLING FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION
OF AVIEMORE COURT ON BLUE CREEK ROAD. RESIDENTS WHO DO NOT EVACUATE
MAY BE STUCK IN THEIR HOUSES FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IF YOU
HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU EVACUATE
TODAY. THERE ARE FIRE PERSONNEL IN THE AREA THAT CAN ASSIST YOU IN
EVACUATING. THE FIRE DEPARTMENT WILL HAVE A PLACE FOR EVERYONE WHO
IS EVACUATED. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT FIRE DISPATCH
AT 657-8200.

May 21: Tornado Warning (History of 1+ tornadoes)- NE Coryell County, TX



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
CORYELL COUNTY...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE OR
MORE TORNADOES 13 MILES WEST OF GATESVILLE.  DOPPLER RADAR ALSO
INDICATES THAT THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF
GATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GATESVILLE...SOUTH MOUNTAIN...OGLESBY AND FORT GATES

May 21: Tornado Warning (Observed Tornado)- Gatesville, Texas


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CORYELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 426 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO
  20 MILES WEST OF GATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS IS A
  DANGEROUS STORM!  SEEK SHELTER NOW!  THIS STORM HAS ALREADY
  DAMAGED SOME STRUCTURES.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GATESVILLE AND SOUTH MOUNTAIN AROUND 530 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

&&

May 21: Tornado Notice- Evant, TX

Evant, Texas is reported to be in the DIRECT path of this tornado.
Doppler radar confirms strong rotation is occurring.
TAKE COVER!

May 21: Tornado Warning (Developing Tornado)- Evant, Texas


TORNADO WARNING
TXC099-193-281-212130-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0079.110521T2052Z-110521T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN CORYELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
  SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL LAMPASAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  DEVELOPING TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF EVANT...MOVING EAST AT 15
  MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM!  SEEK SHELTER NOW!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  EVANT AROUND 405 PM CDT...

Weather Explained: 2011 Hurricane Forecast is very high. Is this a result of global warming?

While the forecast is high due to warmer waters, it is impossible for all that warmth to come from global warming. Maybe a degree higher, but what we are talking about here is a 150%+ of normal hurricanes.
While last year was the 3rd most active (that is a result of global warming), it isn't a direct result.

Something big is going on in the oceans- something bigger than the effect of global warming.
Maybe increased shear or warm waters (likely) we may not know for certain.

All in all, the active season forecast is an indirect result of global warming.

May 21 Place to Be: Wilmington, North Carolina

Today's Place to Be is Wilmington, North Carolina.

Wilmington
HIGH- 85
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Wind: West 5-7 mph.

May 21 Severe Weather

DISCUSSION
Dryline which has been the focus for severe storms yesterday will shift eastward before retreating west again.
Residue from MCS that moved through the central US yesterday will have potential for early morning thunderstorms. Ample and elevated CAPE will be present for a hail and damaging wind threat.
Given the moist atmosphere the storms would be in, there would be potential for the storms to persist. That would give the storms a large hail threat and a tornado threat.

By late afternoon, Central/East Kansas through East Nebraska and East OK/KS will be the feature of scattered thunderstorm development. Some of the storms will be supercells, especially in Oklahoma and Kansas. With CAPE from 2000 j/kg in Neb. to over 3000 j/kg in Oklahoma, there will be a threat for very large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are a possibility, especially over eastern Oklahoma and Kansas in the evening as the lower level jet stream strengthens.

Farther East and NE, into East Arkansas, East Missouri E/NE into portions of IL/IN and even west TN/KY, storms may develop separate from the ones mentioned above. There is potential for bowing segments with risk for damaging winds.
Today's Hail threat

Today's wind threat

Today's tornado threat