Tuesday, August 16, 2011

August 16 East Pacific Tropical Discussion (Tropical Depression SIX-E Discussion)

Tropical Depression SIX-E (TD Six-E) has formed on borderline East Pacific/Central Pacific waters. TD SIX-E is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves east to ENE, but when it moves into the Central Pacific Waters, it is out of our area of responsibility. We will cover it if we can, but that prospect is unlikely.

August 16 Severe Weather Discussion

Today looks like an interesting day as maximum instability will be from west Minnesota down into east Nebraska and Kansas. The problem is that it appears that warm air in the atmosphere will increase, thus shutting down some storms. Despite this, some storms may form, but will have been impacted by the warm air layer, or 'cap'. The severe weather will come as a cold front ignites storms, and that seems like a good bet in itself.

August 16 Atlantic Tropical Discussion (Tropical Storm Gert)

Tropical Storm Gert is currently located way out in the Atlantic, parallel to Virginia but hundreds of miles away. Gert is a weakening tropical storm, and will become extratropical in the next 24 hours as it is thrown towards Europe.
Spaghetti models indicate that the remnants of Gert will likely hit Europe. If it does, it will hit in the northern sections of Europe. Either way, all coastal regions should be on watch for the possibility of a track change.